Amid an ongoing oil supply crisis in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdrew from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The decision, shocking the oil cartel, went into effect on Friday, May 1.
OPEC was founded in 1960 as an alliance of just five countries—Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. In its nearly seven-decade history, the cartel has implemented production quotas to limit the supply of oil, artificially inflating the price of petroleum in the global market.
Following the UAE’s departure, the group’s membership now stands at eleven countries. Those include the five founding members, as well as Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Despite the seeming abrupt decision, withdrawal from OPEC is not without precedent. Both Qatar and Angola withdrew from the coalition in 2019 and 2024, respectively.
Countries and media around the world are citing the Iran war, frustration with Saudi Arabian influence in OPEC, and the desire for greater economic freedom as potential factors in the UAE’s decision.
To explain the situation further, Dr. Lindsay Jouben, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, agreed to provide her analysis.
“Economically, [the UAE] have not been happy with the quota system for a while,” said Jouben, “They feel they would be more economically stable if they could export to their full production capabilities.”
According to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, the UAE has a current production capacity of between 4.5 and 5 million barrels per day (bpd). Under the OPEC agreement, however, the country was restricted to a capacity of 3.2 million bpd.
Now that the UAE is free from such restrictions, the country could see an economic boost in the coming years. Still, any economic benefit from their withdrawal likely won’t be felt until the conflict with Iran comes to an end and the Straight of Hormuz is reopened.
Additionally, the UAE could be seizing an opportunity to further align itself with the U.S., as the continuing war with Iran has put the country in a volatile position. The UAE has reported missile attacks by Iran in recent days, while Iranian officials continue to deny the claims.
“I think the exit is a combination of geopolitical issues as well as economic issues,” said Dr. Jouben, when asked what she believed to be the motivation behind the UAE’s decision. “The war with Iran could be a factor because [the UAE] are an ally of the US and Israel, so it is not hard to see which side of the war they would be on.”
The UAE’s energy minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei, spoke further about his country’s move to leave the oil cartel in an interview with The New York Times.
“The world needs more energy, the world needs more resources and UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups,” Al Mazrouei said. “We will remain as a responsible producer.”
It is unlikely the UAE’s exit from OPEC will shift fuel prices much in the short term. With the current national average of gasoline in the U.S. reaching over $4.50 per gallon, American consumers are growing more frustrated with the situation in Iran, which is now in its ninth week despite ceasefire efforts.
